Baserunning Value Models

Intermediate 10 min read 19 views Nov 28, 2025

Baserunning Value Models

Baserunning is often undervalued but can add significant runs. Analytics quantifies the value of every baserunning decision.

Components of Baserunning

  • Stolen Bases: Attempts and success rate
  • Extra Bases: Taking extra base on hits
  • Avoiding Outs: Not running into outs on bases
  • Advancing on Outs: Moving up on fly balls, etc.

Stolen Base Break-Even

The success rate needed to add value depends on situation:

SituationBreak-Even Rate
2B Steal (0 out)72%
2B Steal (1 out)70%
2B Steal (2 out)76%
3B Steal (0 out)79%

Key Takeaways

  • Run expectancy determines break-even rates
  • Speed adds value beyond just stolen bases
  • Taking extra bases can add 5+ runs per season
  • Good baserunners avoid outs on the basepaths

Discussion

Have questions or feedback? Join our community discussion on Discord or GitHub Discussions.
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