Minor League Analytics
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Nov 28, 2025
Minor League Analytics
Projecting minor leaguers to MLB requires translating performance across levels with different competition quality.
Level Difficulty Adjustments
| Level | AVG Adjustment | ERA Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| AAA | -15 pts | +0.80 |
| AA | -25 pts | +1.20 |
| High-A | -40 pts | +1.80 |
| Low-A | -55 pts | +2.40 |
Key Projection Factors
- Age relative to level: Younger is better
- Strikeout rate: Most predictive skill
- Walk rate: Indicates plate discipline
- Power progression: ISO trends matter
Key Takeaways
- Context matters enormously in MiLB stats
- K% and BB% translate best to MLB
- Age-relative-to-level is crucial indicator
- Velocity and spin rates help pitcher projection
Discussion
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