Machine Learning for Win Probability

ML Classification for Sports Betting

Classification models output win probabilities that can be compared to market odds.

Popular Algorithms

• Logistic Regression: Simple, interpretable baseline
• Random Forest: Handles non-linear relationships
• XGBoost: Often best performance

Calibration

Ensure predicted probabilities match actual frequencies. Use calibration curves.

Avoiding Overfitting

Sports data is noisy. Use cross-validation, regularization, and simple models.