Regression Models for Point Spreads
Intermediate
10 min read
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Nov 28, 2025
Predicting Point Spreads with Regression
Linear regression can estimate expected point differential based on team metrics.
Key Features
- Offensive and defensive efficiency ratings
- Recent scoring averages
- Home court/field advantage
- Rest days and travel
Model Evaluation
Track Mean Absolute Error (MAE) against the spread. Models beating 53% ATS can be profitable.
Discussion
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